How to design experiments that surface flaws in your mental maps about what the future holds? Succeeding in turbulent times requires the commitment to action while knowing that your map of the future is flawed. Running experiments is the single most important activity singling out what will work and what doesn't. Based on the knowledge gained through the experiments and your increased understanding you can redesign your mental map and increase the likelihood of succeeding.
There are two domains we need to understand better to succeed. That is to identify deal killers and knowing what we are betting on.
- Identifying deal killers. Which events will kill your idea or business?
- Knowing what we are betting on. Which unique things are we dependent on to succeed? What will drive customers to our offering? Not the inverse from deal killers.
Getting the cold reality of flawed mental maps enables us to spot weaknesses and opportunities we didn't know beforehand. Experiments lets us under control and with limited bets get a better picture of how our mental map of the future actually fits with reality. Here are five ways of running experiments:
- Partial experiment. Test one attribute at a time. Test parts of a deal killer or bet.
- Design holistic experiments. Test multiple variables and the interactions between them on a small scale. Could also be a test launch before a larger roll-out.
- Explicitly consider trade-offs. Cheap Fast or Certain. But not all three at the same time. Limited budget? Go for cheap on the expense of certainty. Need it fast? Put in more money to match the speed and certainty needed.
- Stage your experiments. Start small and try out the major killers or bets early. Once decided - go all in for that variable and execute the experiment. In between experiments there are room for discussions - during execution it is focus on results. After each experiment evaluate and decide on next step based on results. Don't hesitate to change your mental map - after all that's what the experiment is all about. Validating and finding more/better facts for the mental map of the future.
- Avoid experiment creep. Stick to what you decided during an experiment. Don't let findings during the experiment let you deviate from the set experimentation plan.If the results are not as expected - don't interpret them in the most positive way. Change the mental map instead.
How are you running your experiments and what value do you get out of them to clear the fog of the future?
More to read:
- Don Sull: The Upside of Turbulence
- MIT Sloan: The 4 Ways IT is Driving Innovation. How IT helps drive experiments.
- HBR: How to design smart business experiments?
- Dan Ariely: Predictably Irrational
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